No, I’m not crazy. Neither I want to be insensitive about the pain of the families of the victms of the TAM airbus crash, even because I passed by the sma spot 20 minutes before the crash, and it could have been me in the middle of the debris. But, truth be told, this is the best moment to fly, and I intend to prove it rationally.
I can assume that flying in, inside and out of Brazil is safe for at least 2 months. Why? Mostly due to a series of factors.
1. The pilot who lands an aeroplane in Congonhas or in any airport in Brazil will now apply the safety coeficent of the safety coefficent. He will turn from the “auto landing” into the “full attention” mindset. That means that if before he was careful+1 to land, he will be careful+10. Not that the pilot had anything to do with the accident, but surely the pilots will triple their attention, reducing the already low possibility of accident.
2. Significant improvement in air control. Air controllers are on the spotlight due to Gol Airlines’ accident last year, and because of the chaos that took place after their strike, paralisation and other things. They are afraid. They know that if one plane falls down again, even though they didn’t have anything to do with this last accident in particular, the world will fall down on their heads. No mutiny, no strike: we will count on fully dedicated air controllers for the time being, commited not to screw up.
3. The airfare will suffer a drastic decrease: the demand for flights will fall through the sink (fear taking place), the airlines share value is dropping accordingly and theese, even reducing the amount of commercial flights, will spread their legs to fill the airplanes. This will bring all kinds of special packages, upgrades, discounts, etc. to make ends meet. If you’re folllowing my lead so far and believes nothing will happen to you, it will be even cheaper landing in the Congonhas Airport.
4. The maintenance of the airplanes will be Germanic: until we know if the crash was due to mechanical failure (at least 1 month), I will be a talking donkey if a mechanic will not bother checking part by part at least 20 times.
5. Stats are your friends: dying in a plane crash (in air or in land) is a almost impossible occurrence. It’s a million to 0,2 chance. it is easier to die by lightning (a million to 1,1), driving a car (a hundred to 2,7) or being hit by one (a hundred to 1,8 ). It is easir to die eletrocuted fixing the shower than on a plane crash. Now, if the chances are a million to 0,2, what are the odds of happening again in the same country in less than 2 months? Zero! And it gets better if you come from Porto Alegre to São Paulo: what are the odds of it happening with a plane that has the same intinerary?
So, buy your ticket and enjoy the pleasure of being safeguarded by numbers…